In the new study, the researchers did experiments with 13 participants, asking them to rate the likelihood of 80 possible life events. One such example is the so-called gambler’s fallacy, in which a gambler is positive that he or she will win the next round of blackjack, just after losing multiple rounds in a row, Petrocelli said. “Social psychology is full of examples of” people being overly optimistic, he said. “I don’t agree with their broader conclusion that the unrealistic optimism bias doesn’t exist,” he told Live Science. John Petrocelli, a psychologist at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, who was not involved in the study, said he was also skeptical about the researchers’ claims. “It is absolutely false,” she told Live Science, adding that numerous previous studies have suggested the existence of such bias. Tali Sharot, a neuroscientist at University College London who studies optimism bias and who was not involved in the new study, said she disagreed with the conclusion that there is no evidence for optimism bias. ![]() ![]() However, experts who were not involved in the new study said the findings are unlikely to cause the idea of optimism bias to fall out of favor among psychologists in the field.
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